Monday, March 15, 2010

The political class as problem of Spain in the barometers of CIS (curious graphs LXXXV)

Since they know, today CIS has published the results of his barometer of September, enough centred on questions of privacy in Internet and in other ambiences. Throw a glance.
I have made use of the new information to update a series that I have never published in Wonkapistas, although his moment can have come. It is a question of several series that gather the mentions to problems relative to the political class (political parties, the politicians, the government, the corruption and the fraud...) since they can be traced easily in Internet, this is, from autumn 1994. I prepared these series as answer to a track that a reader (Víctor Marín) happened to me, alerting me of a possible increase of the mention of the political problems in the classic question of CIS on three principal problems of Spain.
Certainly, when one starts examining this question he realizes that it is necessary to consider a set of answers and that not always CIS has codified in the same way the answers relative to what we might name the political class as problem. In the end, there does not stay any more remedy to gather all these codifications in the same graph to see if we do an idea to ourselves how the things are changing. Here they have it (they know already, click in him to extend it).

Really, the spontaneous mentions codified like "the political class, the political parties" go growing for something more about one year, although about the spring 2007 they were in a level perhaps top. Also they are raising the mentions to "the government, the politicians and the parties". The same way they tend to raise the mentions to "the corruption and the fraud", although they continue in levels bajísimos (1,2 % in September, 2009), having reached top levels in recent times (near to 3 % at the end of 2006).
Although there could not be planned backwards a strict evolution of the first two series, we count with similar others: "political problems" and "political crisis / situation". Both suggest that the mention of this type of problems was very top in 1994/1995, which does not wonder, since we were in a situation of quasipermanent political crisis: a government of the Spanish socialist party in minority, governing an immersed country in a very deep economic crisis, and flooded in an endless series of scandals of political corruption, or more serious (case GAL).
In fact, one of the series yes has certain continuity, that of the mentions of the corruption and the fraud. Apparently it reached maximum levels (33 %) in January, 1995 and it was supported, to the fall, in relatively high levels until February, 1996 (21 %), just before the general elections of March of this year.
Anyhow, although we could not establish the continuity of the series with clarity (but yes, more or less, in case of the corruption), we know that we are provided with the classic question in which the interviewee expresses a judgment on the political situation (very bad, bad, regular, good, very good). It is easy to construct an indicator with this question from February, 1995.
In this occasion, unlike the graphs of political tendencies that I have published other times, the indicator of political situation is constructed this way: % of "very bad" + % of "bad" - % of "good" - % of "very good". This way, the worse the political situation, the more it raises the indicator, and vice versa. It see in the following graph, which includes the information of the previous graph more this new series.

Since they can verify, the indicator of political situation transmits, grosso way, the same information as the already commented set of indicators, since it seems to be correlated well with them. In recent times, the perception of the political situation has deteriorated significantly, so that, measured with the indicator about which we speak, it would be in his worst level (46 %) from January, 1996 (52 %). Of course, he still has left enough to come to the maximum historically, of June, 1995 (65). Bets are admitted...

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