Wednesday, March 10, 2010

The crisis is already evident (a little) in the emancipation of the children

One of the effects esperables of an economic crisis as deep as the current one is that the children stretch to leave the paternal hearth later. Perhaps the principal factor is the valuation of juvenile unemployment, although it can take control also of the sensation ambience that the things go badly and, already it is known, in turbulent times better not to risk.
In Spain something similar begins being observed already. With information of the Survey of Active Population we can calculate, grosso way, the emancipation valuation for males and young women in different ages. The emancipated ones would be all those individuals represented in the survey who do not belong to the category of children or daughters of the person of reference of the hearth. If we divide his number by the whole of women / males of every stretch of age, we have an emancipation valuation. If it rises, the young people leaves earlier the nest; if it goes down, the opposite. Let's see what happens.
First, the case of the males. In the following graph we observe the behavior of the valuation of emancipation of the males in three stretches of age (20 to 24, 25 to 29 and 30 to 34) from 1987 up to the actuality. Since it is verified, this valuation fell down in all the stretches up to minimums that were located, according to the age, in the year 2000 or in 2003. Later it climbed, partly (only partly) like reflex of the foreigners' biggest presence in these ages. The ascent was quite notable in the stretch from 25 to 29, since it passed from minimums near to 31 % to maxima of 47 %.

The crisis seems to have stopped this ascent or, even, it to have re-spilled in the stretches from 20 to 24 and from 25 to 29, but it does not seem to be evident in the from 30 to 34 yet.

In case of the women, a similar trajectory is observed, although at top emancipation levels.


The same way, the crisis seems to have stopped or re-spilled the ascent of the emancipation in the women from 20 to 24 and from 25 to 29, but it is not clear that it has done it in the stretch of top age.

The change rhythm does not make to wait that should become prompt in the youngest stretches to the minimal valuations of the ends of the XXth century, and that there keeps on being foreign young people in these age stretches does improbably that it turns again to these valuations, but free me God of doing predictions. Those yes that the devil loads them.

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