The perception of situation economic Spanish as three sources

We are provided, at least, with three survey sources to continue the perception of the Spanish about the economic situation, so much the current one (compared to the past) like the future one (that of next year).
The most long series is that of the consumers' Survey of the European Union, prepared by the DG of Economic and Financial Matters (DG ECFIN) and it has information from 1986 (information, methodology). It is used to prepare an indicator of confidence of the consumer. The survey is carried out monthly on a sample representative of the 16-year-old population or more, which one interviews in the domicile. The size of the sample belongs to approximately 2.000 individuals. The question on the current situation says something like (my translation): How does he believe that it has changed the general economic situation in the country into last twelve months?. And it admits the answers: it has improved very much, has improved a little, has remained equal, has deteriorated a little, has deteriorated very much, ns/nc. The question on the future says this way (also my translation): How does he hope that the general economic situation should develop in this country in the next twelve months?. And it is answered: it will improve very much, will improve a little, will remain equal, will deteriorate a little, will deteriorate very much, ns/nc.
The second series, for duration, is the one that comes from the monthly barometers of CIS (information, methodology), with information from 1996. This survey is applied monthly (less August) to a sample representative of the 18-year-old population or more, which one interviews in his domicile. The size of the sample almost comes to 2.500 individuals. The question on the current situation is: Referring to the general economic situation of Spain: how would you qualify it?. And it admits the answers: very good, good, regular, bad, very bad, ns/nc. The question on the future says: And: do you believe that in one year the economic situation of the country will be better, equal or worse than now?. The answers: better, equal, worse, ns/nc.
The shortest series is that of the Institute of Official Credit (information, methodology), with information from September, 2004. It is used to prepare an indicator of confidence of the consumer. Also it is applied monthly, to a sample of 1.000 16-year-old individuals or more, which one interviews by phone. The first 400 interviews do to themselves individuals who already answered the survey six months earlier. 600 remaining ones complete the sample. The question on the current situation is: Do you think that the current situation of the Spanish economy is better or worse than six months ago?. It is answered her, seems: better, equal, worse, ns/nc. The question on the future says: Do you think that the situation of the Spanish economy in six months will be better or worse than the current one?. And it is answered: better, equal, worse, ns/nc.
Apparently the questions are not identical, although they tend to measure, some, a judgment on the current situation of the Spanish, economy implicit or explicitly compared with that of the past, and others, an expectation on the future evolution, to one year or to half a year. The samples are quite similar in age terms, although not for his making or for the method of data capture (one is telephone, others two are attend them).
With these questions, three organizations prepare their own indicators, generally for a procedure that, basically, implies adding the positive answers and reducing the denials, considering both types of answers as the grade of positividad or negative attitude (great, small...), in his case. The DG ECFIN for his part, presents the corrected seasonal nature information, what does not happen in others two cases.
Like result, we have three different indexes for each of two measurements (current situation, future situation), with not compatible measurements between themselves, although the graphs of evolution of these measurements, in the first one (or second) glance, suggest that the indexes move in a similar way and, therefore, grosso way, they measure the same.
In two following graphs I offer them a comparison of these indexes for the period that they have in common (September, 2004 to January, 2010), making use that the last monthly information has published recently (those of CIS, today; those of the ICO, yesterday; those of the DG ECFIN a few days ago). To be able to compare them better, I have converted all the indexes to the same base, which costs 100 in September, 2004. That does not mean that they are perfectly comparable, but they it are more than if we had them with his original values.

We begin for the indicator of the current situation. They know already, click in the graph to extend it.

The history that three indicators count is, basically the same one, with some change. The perception is supported in similar levels until, more or less, June or July, 2007. Since then, it deteriorates very much, even minimal levels (historically, how it can be verified by the information of the DG ECFIN, and as I showed in times), more rapid in the series of the ICO than in others two. Later two becomes stable in very low levels, earlier in case of the ICO, later in others, or, in case of the ICO, it returns at slightly top levels, still much underneath of those of September, 2004.

The history also is similar, with his variants, for the case of the expectations on the future economic situation.

Again, these expectations remain more or less stable for almost three years until they begin falling down, more or less, about June / July, 2007. It does not look like a fall so marked as that of the perception of the current situation, although, of paying attention to the series of the DG ECFIN, it was in charge to the indicator to historical minimums. Neither it seems so continued. In this case, the odd man out looks like the series of CIS, traveling more rhythmically between themselves two remaining ones. In any case, they all reflect a recovery of the expectations from beginnings of 2009, more or less when the judgment on the current situation had touched fund (or it was on the point of doing it). The people must have thought that to worse impossible age to go...

This recovery stopped and the indicators seem to have become stable in levels very near to those of the beginning of the period that we consider here.

Now it touches you, readership, to interpret all this. They can be fixed, as many do, in the noise of one or two monthly information or to adopt an a little more distant perspective. They already know which it is me who prefers.