Reasons of the arrival of the immigrants of Spain

The INE has just published a quite interesting information about the immigrants in Spain obtained from the Survey of Active Population. It is a question of the correspondent to the module "situation of the immigrants and of his children as regards the labor market", with information of 2008. Throw a glance, it has enough that to see.
What more has attracted attention of me has been the question on the principal reason for which the interviewees (persons from 16 to 74 years) have come to Spain. Regrouping groups of nationalities and reasons (since some of them are very little numerous), the boss of principal reasons of the foreigners, for sexes and nationality, it is the one that two following graphs show.
Let's see first the case of the males (click in the graph to extend it).

Since they can observe (if they extend the graph), the most adduced principal reason, independently of the nationality (of the group of nationalities, rather) it is coming to work, without having I use previously, a little that 54 % of the foreigners mentions. There are relatively small those who say to have come to work counting previously with an employment in Spain (or his company has moved them), 13 %. What means that, of which they come to work, close to 80 % it came without contract of employment and then, probably, it found work. Not at all that we surprise.

Yes it attracts attention that the reason of coming to work without previous employment in Spain is mentioned by more males of the "rest of the world" (69 %). In fact, immense most of them are Moroccan and, less, sub-Saharan, although there will be some Asians. Logically, they are those who less mention the reasons, let's say, of familiar regrouping (11 %, opposite to 19 % of the whole of foreign males of the ages on that we comment).
Let's see now the case of the women (again, click to extend).

The first thing that hits in the eye if we compare the second graph with the first one is that the women mention less the reasons tied of the search of work (43 vs 66 % for the males) and more those of familiar regrouping or family formation (41 vs 19 % for the males). Nothing that does not also surprise although the differences are not abysmal.

Only they it are, relatively, for a nationalities group, those of the "rest of the world" (remember, especially, Moroccan, sub-Saharan and some Asians). There are small the women who come for work (28 %) and many those who come for familiar reasons (64 %). Again, nothing that we were not suspecting, but the empirical assertion always comes well :-)

It improves (a little) the perception of the economic situation, but not that of the politics

CIS has published today the barometer corresponding to June. I am useful to update the graphs on the economic situation and the political situation, which makes great that I do not do it.
First, the graph of perception of the economic situation (click in the graph to extend it).

As it is observed, the judgment on the current economic situation continues in levels bajísimos, although last months they suggest a minimal progress. What yes it improves clearly is the forecast of the economic situation in one year. For the first time in enough months they are so many people those who believe that the thing will go to better like those who believe that it will go to worse. Partly it was foreseeable: we have come so below that nobody "in his healthy judgment" can think that we are still going to deteriorate more (or not?).
Let's see now the perception of the political situation.

The perception of the political situation (line fuchsia), nevertheless, is supported in low levels, without a progress being observed: badly for the government, skylight. Anyhow, we are not in the levels of the year 1995. For the opposition of the PP it paints well, also, the fact of the average ideological autoplace, which tends to be located in the last months in levels more to the right than in the previous years. It does not surprise that in any surveys, the PP appears a little ahead of the Spanish socialist party, not that was winning, for other little, in the European elections.

Employment public and deprived in the last two crises

They already know that today there have been published the results of the Survey of Active Population corresponding to the second trimester of 2009. Also they know that the occupation has fallen down in approximately 145.000 persons between this trimester and the first one of the year, and that the unemployment has increased, in the same period, in more than 125.000 persons. One, between enough, of the information that it attracts attention is that the occupation has kept on falling down in the private sector (almost in 170.000 occupied ones), while it has kept on raising the number of occupied in the public sector (in more than 20.000).
Public and private employment they support a divergent evolution in the last trimesters. Did the same happen in the crisis of beginning of the nineties of last century? We can observe it in the following graph (click to extend).

In the graph I have recounted the employment rates to the existing ones in the trimester of maximum occupation (3rd of 1991, 3rd of 2007), taking a basic number of 100. The graph shows the information of this trimester 0 and seven following ones. Since we know, the employment is falling down now more than in the nineties, something that is even more accentuated in case of the private employment.
Nevertheless, to the heights of the seventh month maximum post-employment, the public employment places 4 % over the level that had in the trimester 0, while in the crisis of the nineties the public employment was located in 2 % for below. Although in this graph the interannual change is not included, the public employment is growing now to 3,7 %, while then it was doing it to-1,6 % (this is, it was falling down). The difference is very notable.
The current government, at this point of the movie, for this way saying it, as we know, it is impelling very much the public expenditure, probably more that the socialistic government did it, to the same heights of the movie of the employment, in the nineties. Partly it will do it for conviction, partly, for political opportunity, and, partly, also for the judgment that they have on his maneuver margin. I am given me by the impression of which they are thinking about having it major than the one that the Socialists had at the beginning of the nineties. If it is like that, his judgment has a real basic minim in the evolution of the economic indicators in the previous trimesters.
At a height of the 2nd trimester of 1993, looking backwards, the leaders of the moment saw a panorama of big growth of the expense and the public employment, especially from 1989, and as a result, partly, from the authorizations to the trade unions "victorious" in the general strike of December, 1988. The growth of the public employment for then can turn in the following graph.

Since they see, the public employment was growing to interannual valuations that came to a maximum of 10 % in the third trimester of 1989, with seven trimester growing over 5 % interannual. So much I use and spend publics did that the public deficit and the public debt were growing enormously in proportion of the PIB.En the actuality, the increases of the public expenditure in the last years have not had the same effects in the public accounts, since it even does relatively little these were supported in balance or, even, in surplus, and the weight of the public debt on the GDP, also till not long ago, it was descending. The public employment has not also grown so much as then, how one sees in the graph.
The government looks backwards and he is thinking about having maneuver margin, how, on the other hand, he has affirmed in multiple occasions; I do not discover anything new.
And forward? Is there this maneuver margin? That is different to sing, skylight, and anyone starts today doing predictions, but the employment information to himself, tabién public, of the crisis of 1993 they suggest that the maneuver margin is narrow. It it seems, at least. Watch Southland S02E03 U-Boat online

Several ways of measuring the unemployment in Spain

Recently, when new numbers appear on the unemployment in Spain, like today, diverse measurements of the above mentioned phenomenon usually confront, generally to benefit of the argument that the one who handles them wants to do. Published in Spain there is at least three.
1. The numbers of unemployment that measures the Survey of Active Population (EPA).
2. The numbers of registered unemployment prepared by the Public Service of State Employment (SPEE), of the Department of Labour.
3. The numbers of Claimants of Employment not Busy (denos), which also there publishes the above-mentioned Public Service of State Employment.
According to the EPA in his current version,

There will be considered to be stops all the persons of 16 or more years that the following conditions should assemble simultaneously:
- without work, that is to say, that they have taken an employment neither as a foreign account nor as proper account during the week of reference.
- in search of work, that is to say, that they have taken concrete measures to look for a work for foreign account or have done negotiations to be established by his account during the previous month.
- available for being employed, that is to say, at conditions it to begin to do within a period of two weeks from Sunday of the week of reference.
Also there consider stops the persons of 16 or more years that during the week of reference have been without work, available for working and that do not look for employment because they have already found one which they will join in three months later to the week of reference. Therefore, in this case there is not demanded the criterion of effective search of employment.
The absent persons of the work as a consequence of a suspension for regulation who are not considered to be busy, this is that whose employer pays to them less than 50 per cent of his salary and that are going to rejoin to his employment after last three months, they are stopped if they have looked for work and are available for redeeming it.

For the SPEE, the principal concept is that of claimant of employment:

Claimants are the workpeople who register in the public services of employment for the search of an employment or to improve the one that they already possess (labor intermediation), to receive other services foreign to the employment (orientation for the self-employment, occupational formation,). or for the obligatory nature to register to perceive a contributory service or a subsidy.

Obviously, not all the claimants of employment are stopped. To obtain the number of registered unemployment it is necessary to withdraw the number of claimants the numbers that certain groups represent.
The employment claimants with limited availability. This category seems to include, first, the claimants who have no availability to work (they request services foreign to the employment, they request self-employment, claimants with demand suspended without intermediation), second, that they have a low availability (demands suspended with intermediation, pensioners, pensioners), and, third, to they demand specific work places (of work only to domicile, of telework, of work only abroad, emigrants with will of return, of work only out of his residence community...).
The busy employment claimants. This category groups different groups of workpeople who have work but they demand an employment: percipients of services assigned in works of social collaboration, hard-working with records of regulation of employment, fixed workpeople discontinuous, and affiliated to the Social security in the general or autonomous systems.
Other not occupied employment claimants. The agrarian possible workpeople are, on one hand, subsidized (or TEASS) and, for other one, a hodgepodge that it includes: that there ask for a work that should last less than three months (relating to the moment employment), which demand a day lower than 20 (part-time) weekly hours, the students younger than 25 years or who demand the first employment if they have more than 25 years, and the claimants of services before to the employment.
The claimants of employment not gathered in the previous groups represent the registered unemployment. The claimants' sum with limited availability and the denos category is other not occupied employment claimants.
Since they know, the information of the EPA is quarterly, while those of registered unemployment and denos are published every month. To compare them, I have used quarterly averages for the last two measurements.
See in the following graph the information from 1996 (year in which the homogeneous series of registered unemployment begins) up to the second trimester of 2009. Bear in mind that in the series of EPA there are two significant ruptures, one in 2001 and other one in 2005. And bear in mind, also, that a part of the information of denos (2001 until April, 2005, I believe) is reestimations carried out at a later stage. They know already, click in the graph to extend it.

Apparently three measurements continue a similar, but not identical evolution. The unemployment EPA starts by being clearly superior to the registered unemployment, until it changes the criterion EPA in 2001 and both are located in very similar levels. With the new change of crierio EPA in 2005, the numbers of unemployment EPA are lower than those of registered, safe unemployment with the current crisis, in which, without change of any criterion, the unemployment EPA is clearly superior again to the registered one. Do not ask why.

For his part, the number of denos is almost parallel to that of registered unemployment, although, obviously, as it includes more groups, it is top, in approximately 400.000 persons in the years with which both series coincide. In the last trimester (2nd of 2009), the number of unemployment EPA (4.137.500) is more similar to that of denos (4.073.620) that to that of registered unemployment (3.609.969), but it seems to be a mere coincidence, since in previous trimesters the opposite happened.

The fact internationally comparable is, as they know, that of the EPA, even with the changes of criterion that we have seen. Others two give us a slightly more relating to the moment (monthly) track. The panorama that the three draw is, in not very thin, similar line, although there are sudden changes in the relation between EPA and others two that the specialists will have to explain on Spanish labor market.

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Question of (economic) confidence

A part of the current economic discussion in Spain has to do with the expectations of evolution of the economic situation. Since it is of waiting, the government insists on highlighting the information of the economic reality that, seemingly, point at changes of tendency, and the critics are in charge of insisting on the still very low levels of these indicators. In the same way, the government fights as to a nail burning to the information of opinion that reflect a change of tendency (towards the progress) in the expectations of evolution of the personal economy and the Spaniard in general.
In the above mentioned, in that thing about the expectations of the people, the government it takes those of winning, although it is only because the judgment on the economic situation and these expectations they deteriorated so much that éra almost impossible that they were deteriorating more, at least as they measure themselves in the surveys.
I revise next in detail some of these indicators, relative to the confidence of the consumers (this is, of the public in general). I use the published ones by the European Commission, since they usually attend to little in Spain. The graphs that they continue are prepared by public information proceeding from this page (1).
Let's begin for the indicator consisted of confidence of the consumer that there publishes the DG Finance of the European Commission. Let's remember that it is based on four questions relative to the future economic evolution and her spent, whose detail we will see further on.

It is quite clear that the confidence of the consumers, like that measurement, is improving, both in the set of the European Union and in Spain, departing from levels "historically" very low in both cases, especially in Spanish. For Spain, the indicator would have returned at the levels of March, 2008, a moment in which this index was already falling down.
More interesting that this aggregate indicator can be to be fixed in the individual indicators that compose them and other questions not included in the indicator of confidence. We see them for the Spanish case.
Let's see first the relative ones to the financial situation of the hearth.
Since the judgment is seen on the financial situation of last year scarcely it mends, continuing in levels bajísimos, but the evolution expectations improve quickly. Really, the expectations had fallen down very much, to historical minimums, much underneath of those of the crisis of 1993.
Secondly, the judgment on the general economic situation in Spain.

Almost we can repeat the previous comment, therefore I will not do it :-)
Of the previous indicators, there intervene in the shape of the indicator of confidence those of expectations of evolution of the situation of the hearth and of Spain, not those of the past situation. Next we see another indicator that is not considered in this index, not in his version "towards the past" not in his "future" version. I refer to the perception of the behavior of the prices to the consumption.
The evolution of the indicator looks of reflecting the news on the IPC that are taking place month a month, although I have not verified it. It be fixed that, in recent times, it begins collapsing (that is to say, more and more people begin saying that the prices will not rise), I joust when the IPC begins collapsing in Spain, this is, in the last trimester of 2008. Or perhaps the fact is that, really, the nations began feeling in his daily buys this prices fall. Who knows. That should move so in parallel he makes me think that the future forecast depends very much of the current or past situation, and does not serve too much to watch what is going to happen with the prices.
Quarter, something seemed happens in case of the forecast of the evolution of the unemployment in one year.
It gives the impression of which the interviewees answer according to the most recent news about evolution of the unemployment. What is clear is that the expectations, even being denials, it are not so much like eight months ago. This indicator yes is used in the compound indicator.
In fifth place, let's see other questions that are not used in the compound indicator, relative to the predisposition to carry out buys called major, like electrical or electronic devices, furniture...

For the prompt thing, we observe that those who were saying that it was not the moment adapted for this type of buys ended up by being overcome by them in much those who yes believed it about November, 2008, although since then the forces have re-balanced enough in favor of the second ones. For his part, the predisposition to spend more in this type of buys the next year also fell down to minimums, but the subsequent recovery has been small, what he suggests that there will be supported the moderation of the familiar expense.
Finally, let's see the opinions about the saving. On this matter, we are provided with three questions. The first one refers to if the current moment is good or bad to save.

I do not know if there is any rupture of the series at the end of 2001, but, if it is not, it is clear that, since then, the opposite opinions to (very bad moment, not good moment to save) have tended to overcome the favorable ones (very good moment, quite good moment to save), coming the indicator at a few minimal levels about June, 2008. Later, it gives the impression of which the people have chosen to press the belt, recovering this indicator the levels of six years behind in May, 2009. Since then, nevertheless, it has fallen down again, and enough. Perhaps for the notable fall of the interest rates in the last months. The second one refers to the saving expectations next year, other of the subindicators of the index of confidence of the consumer.

The balance between those that they were estimating like probable to save in 12 following months and those who were considering it not probable began collapsing from October, 2007, more or less the date in which the indicator of already seen saving experienced the penultimate fall. The indicator fell down to his historical minimums, recovering again about the spring of this year, and being located at present in levels similar to those of the summer 2007.
The last question refers to the financial situation of the hearth at present. The indicator reflects the balance between those who say to save (great or small) and those who are "desahorrando" or incurring debts.

Since this balance is seen it deteriorated very much from May / June, 2008, going over to minimums, almost historical, at the beginning of the year 2009. Since then a shy recovery is observed. In general, it gives the impression of which the indicators on the situation current or past continue in quite negative levels, even having improved something from the minimums. On contrary, the questions on what it is waited (he wishes?) of the future reflect a major enough recovery. As he was saying to them at first, some and other politicians will insist on a few or other indicators as they should serve to them. Here, in Wonkapistas, we all offer them to him so that you do your own place composition to themselves.
__________ (1) they count The construction of the indicators here.

Recent evolution of the IPC and the wages

The INE has just published the provisional information of the harmonious labor cost, a common estimation of the labor costs for the countries of the European Union. The information includes also the harmonious wage cost, which comes to be the labor cost less social quotations, grosso way. These costs are measured bearing in mind the really worked hours. It gives the impression from which the information covers all the activity sectors.
The information is quarterly and 100 present before themselves in the shape of index, with base in 2008, and it offers three estimations, the gross series, the corrected one of the effect calendar and the corrected one of calendar and of seasonal nature. The last one seems to reflect better the reality of the evolution of the wages. We can compare this evolution with the evolution of the prices, taking the series of the IPC, also in his harmonious version. The information of the IPC is monthly, but it is easy to turn them in quarterly, taking the average of the trimester.
The following graph includes the interannual changes of both indexes, in percentage.

Apparently in the second trimester of 2009, the wages / hour were growing to an interannual rhythm of 5,4 %, while the IPC would have been doing it to-0,7 %, therefore, this way measured, the wages of the workpeople who have supported his employment during this crisis would be gaining enough purchasing power. In the previous trimester, the respective changes were 3,5 and 0,5 %, what also was implying a purchasing power profit.

In fact, in this series, which it covers from the first trimester of 2001 up to the second one of 2009 (34 trimesters), the growth of the wages has been a Superior to that of the IPC in 22 trimesters (and low in 12, skylight). As a whole, between the first trimester of 2000 and the second trimester of 2009 the wage index would have grown 46 %, while the prices index only would have grown 32 %.

Update

The first (anonymous) commentator must have part of reason. It is not possible to compare as cheerfully as I have done it between two trimesters in which the structure of the employment for wages level can have changed significantly. Anyhow, as thick indication of how much must they be raising the wages of those who work, also can take the wage rise agreed in the agreements, and speech, again, of a progress probably substantially of purchasing power. In the registered ones until July, the annual increase is 2,7 %, with a minimal change of the day. Again, let's remember that it is a "thick" track and it would be necessary to bear in mind the covered sectors.

On the other hand, if we calculate the change of the wage cost between 1t2000 and 4t2007, before the big fall of the employment (and, therefore, of the big fall of the temporary employment, with wages lower than the average), we see that 36 % increased, while the IPC made it 29 %. Bearing in mind that many of the workpeople who joined to the labor market in these years did it in low wage levels (the foreigners, for example), there is observed a clear profit of purchasing, measured power of a "thick" way as we can do it, although clearly lower than the one that is the result of comparing the whole period.

Eight of every ten unsatisfied Spanish with his work?

I do not know how, but I keep on being astonished at the capacity that some have statistical data of the top hat are extracted. The coach (?) and journalist Sergio Fernández, according to an interview published in The Avant-garde, affirms:

8 of every 10 Spanish is unsatisfied with his work. The persons' quantity that gets up every tomorrow about going to a work for which nothing sits, is very big. If it was touching them the lottery they would stop working on the following day.

I do not say that there is no great one (how much?) the people that go to the work in the conditions that affirm the "coach", but that thing about "8 of every 10" it have extracted of the sleeve. Which is not an impediment so that The Avant-garde takes this supposed fact to the holder.
Let's see what says the last Survey of Quality of life in the Work (2008), the best with which we are provided, precisely, to measure this type of things, since it is a question of a survey representative of the busy ones, with a quite wide sample and with pertinent questions on this matter.
One asks the busy one to indicate his satisfaction grade in his current work, in a scale that goes from 0 (void satisfaction) to 10 very high (satisfaction). The average that is obtained is 7,3. It does not look like a low average, the truth. As there classify the results of this question who prepare the stage that appear on the web page of the Department of Labour, the answer this way (1) would be distributed:
- very satisfied: 19,9 %
- satisfied: 53,1 %
- neither unsatisfied nor satisfied: 24,7 %
- very unsatisfied / unsatisfied: 2,3 %
Certainly, we might think that all those who do not fall down in the category of "very satisfied" would be not satisfied. Only this way we would obtain the percentage of 80 % of unsatisfied.
Eye: this is an only one satisfaction measurement. Hangover, like that they usually provide the surveys. Anyhow, throw a glance to other results of the ECVT. They will obtain a richer idea of the question of the job satisfaction with which they provide the extracted statistics of the top hat, although it is of the top hat of a "coach".
_____
(1) Since I do not have the information file, I cannot know what punctuations they include in every category. Yes I have that of the survey of 2004, which offers very similar results, although the question is not exactly equal. The scale goes from the 1 (very unsatisfied) (very satisfied) to 10. The answers, removing the "ns/nc" (very small) are:
1: 1,7 %
2: 1,0 %
3: 2,1 %
4: 4,9 %
5: 9,1 %
6: 12,9
7: 16,7 %
8: 32,1 %
9: 10,8 %
10: 8,9 %
The average would be 7,1.