Saturday, March 20, 2010

Employment public and deprived in the last two crises

They already know that today there have been published the results of the Survey of Active Population corresponding to the second trimester of 2009. Also they know that the occupation has fallen down in approximately 145.000 persons between this trimester and the first one of the year, and that the unemployment has increased, in the same period, in more than 125.000 persons. One, between enough, of the information that it attracts attention is that the occupation has kept on falling down in the private sector (almost in 170.000 occupied ones), while it has kept on raising the number of occupied in the public sector (in more than 20.000).
Public and private employment they support a divergent evolution in the last trimesters. Did the same happen in the crisis of beginning of the nineties of last century? We can observe it in the following graph (click to extend).

In the graph I have recounted the employment rates to the existing ones in the trimester of maximum occupation (3rd of 1991, 3rd of 2007), taking a basic number of 100. The graph shows the information of this trimester 0 and seven following ones. Since we know, the employment is falling down now more than in the nineties, something that is even more accentuated in case of the private employment.
Nevertheless, to the heights of the seventh month maximum post-employment, the public employment places 4 % over the level that had in the trimester 0, while in the crisis of the nineties the public employment was located in 2 % for below. Although in this graph the interannual change is not included, the public employment is growing now to 3,7 %, while then it was doing it to-1,6 % (this is, it was falling down). The difference is very notable.
The current government, at this point of the movie, for this way saying it, as we know, it is impelling very much the public expenditure, probably more that the socialistic government did it, to the same heights of the movie of the employment, in the nineties. Partly it will do it for conviction, partly, for political opportunity, and, partly, also for the judgment that they have on his maneuver margin. I am given me by the impression of which they are thinking about having it major than the one that the Socialists had at the beginning of the nineties. If it is like that, his judgment has a real basic minim in the evolution of the economic indicators in the previous trimesters.
At a height of the 2nd trimester of 1993, looking backwards, the leaders of the moment saw a panorama of big growth of the expense and the public employment, especially from 1989, and as a result, partly, from the authorizations to the trade unions "victorious" in the general strike of December, 1988. The growth of the public employment for then can turn in the following graph.

Since they see, the public employment was growing to interannual valuations that came to a maximum of 10 % in the third trimester of 1989, with seven trimester growing over 5 % interannual. So much I use and spend publics did that the public deficit and the public debt were growing enormously in proportion of the PIB.En the actuality, the increases of the public expenditure in the last years have not had the same effects in the public accounts, since it even does relatively little these were supported in balance or, even, in surplus, and the weight of the public debt on the GDP, also till not long ago, it was descending. The public employment has not also grown so much as then, how one sees in the graph.
The government looks backwards and he is thinking about having maneuver margin, how, on the other hand, he has affirmed in multiple occasions; I do not discover anything new.
And forward? Is there this maneuver margin? That is different to sing, skylight, and anyone starts today doing predictions, but the employment information to himself, tabiƩn public, of the crisis of 1993 they suggest that the maneuver margin is narrow. It it seems, at least. Watch Southland S02E03 U-Boat online

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